Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 6°C or below on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $74 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$74.28
$0.04
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $34.97 | $34.98 | +$0.02 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.98 | $15.99 | +$0.01 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $12.99 | $12.99 | +$0.01 | 28% 153-400 (553) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.3 | $5.31 | +$0 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5.01 | +$0 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
Invested
$34.97
Value
$34.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Invested
$15.98
Value
$15.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$12.99
Value
$12.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
28%
153-400 (553)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.31
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.01
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.