Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 10?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $430 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$429.73

Combined PnL

$3.38

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$429.69

Total Shares430

Combined PnL+$3.56

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.04

Total Shares44

Combined PnL-$0.18

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$80.42	$80.42	-$0	31% 163-361 (524)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98¢	$73.48	$74.93	+$1.44	6% 18-276 (294)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$54.09	$54.61	+$0.51	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$41.5	$41.58	+$0.08	80% 140-34 (174)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$38.25	$38.46	+$0.21	28% 153-400 (553)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$31.86	$32.35	+$0.49	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.5	$29.52	+$0.02	30% 174-414 (588)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$21.35	$21.6	+$0.25	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$17.27	$17.46	+$0.19	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$16.57	$16.65	+$0.08	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$11.7	$11.84	+$0.14	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$10.14	$10.28	+$0.14	36% 462-806 (1268)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.22	$0.04	-$0.18	17% 10-48 (58)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$80.42

Value

$80.42

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$73.48

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$1.44

Record

18-276 (294)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$54.09

Value

$54.61

PnL

+$0.51

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$41.5

Value

$41.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$38.25

Value

$38.46

PnL

+$0.21

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$31.86

Value

$32.35

PnL

+$0.49

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$29.5

Value

$29.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$21.35

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$0.25

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$17.27

Value

$17.46

PnL

+$0.19

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$16.57

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$0.08

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$11.84

PnL

+$0.14

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.14

Value

$10.28

PnL

+$0.14

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.18

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.