Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 10?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 45¢ · $416 held · ends Nov 10

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$416.45

Combined PnL

$19.64

Smart Money Entry

42.6¢ → 45¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$133.98

Total Shares280

Combined PnL+$14.94

Yes2 traders

Total Value$31.74

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$4.7

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 41.5¢	$133.03	$250.72	-$32.6	53% 29-26 (55)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.5¢	$151.66	$164.37	-$34.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.8¢	$84.42	$86.35	+$1.93
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 41.9¢	$41.86	$51.61	+$9.75	56% 49-38 (87)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 42.6¢	$5.03	$40.89	+$4.62	28% 56-141 (197)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 42.4¢	$35.74	$36.23	+$0.49	46% 57-67 (124)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$27.36	$26.7	+$0.53	65% 43-23 (66)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.64	$5.04	+$4.17	77% 44-13 (57)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 51.6¢	$2.67	$2.67	+$0	45% 37-46 (83)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.58	+$0.08	6% 6-91 (97)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$133.03

Value

$250.72

PnL

-$32.6

Record

53%

29-26 (55)

Both legs:

No$151.6641.5¢-$34.53

Yes$84.4253.8¢+$1.93

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$41.86

Value

$51.61

PnL

+$9.75

Record

56%

49-38 (87)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$40.89

PnL

+$4.62

Record

28%

56-141 (197)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$35.74

Value

$36.23

PnL

+$0.49

Record

46%

57-67 (124)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.36

Value

$26.7

PnL

+$0.53

Record

65%

43-23 (66)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.64

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$4.17

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.67

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

37-46 (83)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

6-91 (97)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.