Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 10?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 90¢ · $505 held · ends Nov 10

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$504.88

Combined PnL

$19.95

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 90¢

+15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$503.06

Total Shares600

Combined PnL+$19

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.82

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.95

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 76¢	$337.15	$338.36	+$1.21	53% 29-26 (55)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$61.48	$62.01	+$0.52	28% 56-141 (197)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$60.32	$61.84	+$1.52	65% 43-23 (66)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$10.57	$15.65	+$15.9	53% 87-77 (164)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$13.01	$12.91	-$0.1	44% 47-60 (107)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.1	-$0.2	43% 17-23 (40)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.05	$4.2	+$0.15	6% 6-91 (97)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.59	$1.82	+$0.95	77% 44-13 (57)

241532532432

Invested

$337.15

Value

$338.36

PnL

+$1.21

Record

53%

29-26 (55)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$61.48

Value

$62.01

PnL

+$0.52

Record

28%

56-141 (197)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$60.32

Value

$61.84

PnL

+$1.52

Record

65%

43-23 (66)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.57

Value

$15.65

PnL

+$15.9

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.01

Value

$12.91

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

47-60 (107)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

43%

17-23 (40)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.15

Record

6-91 (97)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.59

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$0.95

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.