Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 10°C on November 10?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 100¢ · $586 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$585.74

Combined PnL

$14.83

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$585.69

Total Shares586

Combined PnL+$14.86

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.04

Total Shares22

Combined PnL-$0.03

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.9¢	$312.05	$227.77	+$9.63	21% 132-485 (617)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$76.91	$79.14	+$2.23	34% 150-294 (444)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$73.9	$74.93	+$1.03	10% 25-236 (261)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$53.82	$54.61	+$0.79	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$39.64	$40.03	+$0.39	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$21.87	$22.01	+$0.14	35% 138-259 (397)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$21.36	$21.6	+$0.24	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99¢	$17.31	$17.46	+$0.15	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.98	$15.98	+$0	80% 140-34 (174)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$15.21	$15.3	+$0.09	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$10.1	$10.21	+$0.11	30% 174-414 (588)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$4.94	$5	+$0.06	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$1.64	$1.66	+$0.01	31% 163-361 (524)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.07	$0.04	-$0.03	17% 10-48 (58)

241532532432

Invested

$312.05

Value

$227.77

PnL

+$9.63

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$76.91

Value

$79.14

PnL

+$2.23

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$73.9

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$1.03

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$53.82

Value

$54.61

PnL

+$0.79

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$39.64

Value

$40.03

PnL

+$0.39

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$21.87

Value

$22.01

PnL

+$0.14

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$21.36

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$0.24

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$17.31

Value

$17.46

PnL

+$0.15

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.98

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$0

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.21

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$0.09

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.1

Value

$10.21

PnL

+$0.11

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

PnL

+$0.06

Record

17-463 (480)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0.01

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.