Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 1?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 2.0¢ · $566 held · ends Nov 1

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$566.14

Combined PnL

$114.6

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$563.41

Total Shares580

Combined PnL+$230.28

No1 trader

Total Value$2.74

Total Shares137

Combined PnL-$115.68

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 18.1¢	$96.2	$514.11	+$229.76	59% 1919-1349 (3268)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 56.5¢	$40.8	$39.6	-$1.03	18% 364-1623 (1987)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$7.5	$9.7	+$1.55	32% 4493-9632 (14125)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 80.4¢	$180.07	$2.74	-$115.68	53% 6686-5884 (12570)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$96.2

Value

$514.11

PnL

+$229.76

Record

59%

1919-1349 (3268)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.8

Value

$39.6

PnL

-$1.03

Record

18%

364-1623 (1987)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$1.55

Record

32%

4493-9632 (14125)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$180.07

Value

$2.74

PnL

-$115.68

Record

53%

6686-5884 (12570)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.