Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on October 30?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 24¢ · $213 held · ends Oct 30

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$212.53

Combined PnL

$44.38

Smart Money Entry

21.7¢ → 24.1¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$173.2

Total Shares587

Combined PnL+$45.63

No2 traders

Total Value$39.33

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$1.25

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 22.4¢	$123.21	$162.01	+$38.8	47% 615-700 (1315)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$20.74	$20	-$0.12	23% 287-958 (1245)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$20.46	$19.32	-$1.13	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$4.36	$11.19	+$6.83	60% 1670-1125 (2795)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$123.21

Value

$162.01

PnL

+$38.8

Record

47%

615-700 (1315)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.74

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.12

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$20.46

Value

$19.32

PnL

-$1.13

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.36

Value

$11.19

PnL

+$6.83

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.1%

24.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$283.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

383.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.