Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 55¢ · $683 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$682.93
$18.84
62.1¢ → 54.5¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 32.3¢ | $256.07 | $297.09 | +$56.71 | 47% 615-700 (1315) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 66.2¢ | $237.19 | $199.08 | -$34.84 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 56.3¢ | $161.05 | $161.05 | +$9.12 | 55% 320-260 (580) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 67¢ | $111.02 | $23.83 | -$12.5 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $1.45 | $1.89 | +$0.35 | 60% 1670-1125 (2795) |
Invested
$256.07
Value
$297.09
PnL
+$56.71
Record
47%
615-700 (1315)
IstarothInvested
$237.19
Value
$199.08
PnL
-$34.84
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Invested
$161.05
Value
$161.05
PnL
+$9.12
Record
55%
320-260 (580)
Invested
$111.02
Value
$23.83
PnL
-$12.5
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.89
PnL
+$0.35
Record
60%
1670-1125 (2795)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.