Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 27?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 66¢ · $391 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$390.54
-$1.87
59.3¢ → 65.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 60.7¢ | $138.43 | $133.79 | -$4.64 | 61% 1527-966 (2493) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 56.4¢ | $116.55 | $121.03 | +$4.48 | 52% 560-522 (1082) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 61.8¢ | $97.27 | $96.47 | -$0.54 | 32% 273-569 (842) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.3¢ | $48.53 | $32.66 | -$1.66 | 53% 6231-5470 (11701) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.4¢ | $6.1 | $6.59 | +$0.49 | 61% 20509-12859 (33368) |
Invested
$138.43
Value
$133.79
PnL
-$4.64
Record
61%
1527-966 (2493)
Invested
$116.55
Value
$121.03
PnL
+$4.48
Record
52%
560-522 (1082)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$97.27
Value
$96.47
PnL
-$0.54
Record
32%
273-569 (842)
Invested
$48.53
Value
$32.66
PnL
-$1.66
Record
53%
6231-5470 (11701)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$6.1
Value
$6.59
PnL
+$0.49
Record
61%
20509-12859 (33368)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.