Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on November 7?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Yes 50%
$30.65
-$183.61
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 24.5¢ | $198.62 | — | -$198.62 | 39% 900-1436 (2336) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $21.03 | — | -$21.03 | 54% 10777-9308 (20085) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 69.3¢ | $14.18 | $20.47 | +$6.29 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | No | $10.18 | $10.18 | +$4.74 | 39% 1314-2061 (3375) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | — | — | +$0 | 38% 2430-3890 (6320) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $11.72 | — | +$16.31 | 44% 13945-17925 (31870) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $48.4 | — | +$8.69 | 13% 603-4221 (4824) |
Invested
$198.62
Value
—
PnL
-$198.62
Record
39%
900-1436 (2336)
Invested
$21.03
Value
—
PnL
-$21.03
Record
54%
10777-9308 (20085)
Invested
$14.18
Value
$20.47
PnL
+$6.29
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Invested
$10.18
Value
$10.18
PnL
+$4.74
Record
39%
1314-2061 (3375)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
2430-3890 (6320)
Invested
$11.72
Value
—
PnL
+$16.31
Record
44%
13945-17925 (31870)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$48.4
Value
—
PnL
+$8.69
Record
13%
603-4221 (4824)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0
CTRYes — $0
Poligarch
CTRYes — $0
ghorrock
No — $20.47
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $10.18
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $0
godblessme2026
No — $0
Istaroth
CTRYes — $0