Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on November 6?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 22¢ · $267 held · ends Nov 6

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$267.11

Combined PnL

$0.74

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$195.1

Total Shares513

Combined PnL-$3.84

No3 traders

Total Value$72.01

Total Shares116

Combined PnL+$4.58

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 38.7¢	$198.94	$195.1	-$3.84	41% 832-1198 (2030)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$43.27	$43.83	+$0.57	53% 4075-3600 (7675)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$18.16	$21.97	+$3.81	52% 30789-28932 (59721)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 60¢	$6	$6.2	+$0.2	58% 21138-15369 (36507)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$198.94

Value

$195.1

PnL

-$3.84

Record

41%

832-1198 (2030)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$43.27

Value

$43.83

PnL

+$0.57

Record

53%

4075-3600 (7675)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$18.16

Value

$21.97

PnL

+$3.81

Record

52%

30789-28932 (59721)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.