Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $140 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$139.73

Combined PnL

-$5.86

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 95.7¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$136.27

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$1.04

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.43

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$4.83

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97¢	$45.23	$44.29	-$0.94	53% 7196-6292 (13488)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$33.62	$33.63	+$0	53% 1867-1658 (3525)
VI vibing123<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$24.06	$24.7	+$0.64	62% 1142-703 (1845)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$14.87	$14.58	-$0.29	42% 1655-2297 (3952)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$9.73	$9.58	-$0.16	32% 281-585 (866)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.5	-$0.3	28% 1054-2759 (3813)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.59	$2.32	-$4.27	54% 1228-1028 (2256)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$1.23	$0.96	-$0.27	41% 716-1035 (1751)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.44	$0.15	-$0.28	31% 1081-2425 (3506)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$45.23

Value

$44.29

PnL

-$0.94

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.62

Value

$33.63

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

vibing123<$100

Invested

$24.06

Value

$24.7

PnL

+$0.64

Record

62%

1142-703 (1845)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$14.87

Value

$14.58

PnL

-$0.29

Record

42%

1655-2297 (3952)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.73

Value

$9.58

PnL

-$0.16

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

28%

1054-2759 (3813)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.59

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$4.27

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.23

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.27

Record

41%

716-1035 (1751)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.28

Record

31%

1081-2425 (3506)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.