Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 63¢ · $773 held · ends Nov 15

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$772.62

Combined PnL

$50.55

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 62.5¢

-13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$495.43

Total Shares767

Combined PnL-$17.36

Yes4 traders

Total Value$277.18

Total Shares773

Combined PnL+$67.91

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 73.2¢	$491.81	$433.44	-$58.37	62% 1133-696 (1829)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 29.1¢	$243.42	$238.41	+$60.94	55% 1214-1001 (2215)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 60¢	$29.47	$31.68	+$2.21	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.9¢	$30.91	$30.54	-$0.37	55% 2289-1901 (4190)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68.1¢	$26	$10.85	-$0.72	52% 1709-1558 (3267)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$5.63	$7.14	+$1.51	31% 165-364 (529)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.81	$6.55	-$0.25	57% 703-521 (1224)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.7	$6.45	-$0.25	30% 243-579 (822)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 67¢	$97.82	$6.45	+$40.03	36% 3765-6817 (10582)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.06	$1.09	+$5.84	27% 691-1911 (2602)

vibing123

Invested

$491.81

Value

$433.44

PnL

-$58.37

Record

62%

1133-696 (1829)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$243.42

Value

$238.41

PnL

+$60.94

Record

55%

1214-1001 (2215)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.47

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$2.21

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.91

Value

$30.54

PnL

-$0.37

Record

55%

2289-1901 (4190)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$10.85

PnL

-$0.72

Record

52%

1709-1558 (3267)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.63

Value

$7.14

PnL

+$1.51

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.81

Value

$6.55

PnL

-$0.25

Record

57%

703-521 (1224)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$0.25

Record

30%

243-579 (822)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$97.82

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$40.03

Record

36%

3765-6817 (10582)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.06

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$5.84

Record

27%

691-1911 (2602)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.