Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $111 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$111.5

Combined PnL

-$193.43

Smart Money Entry

32.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$84.49

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$26.1

Yes6 traders

Total Value$27

Total Shares949

Combined PnL-$219.52

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 48.9¢	$55.76	$30.11	+$19.55	42% 803-1100 (1903)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$24.96	$27.97	+$3.01	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 43.7¢	$288.29	$19.77	-$268.52	61% 1200-763 (1963)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 54.5¢	$15.33	$16.87	+$1.54	68% 89-42 (131)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$7.54	$9.54	+$2	71% 950-388 (1338)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.85	$4.73	-$4.12	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$13.33	$2.01	-$2.37	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.75	$0.24	+$4.96	24% 788-2560 (3348)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$66.53	$0.15	+$49.36	35% 3905-7251 (11156)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$15.25	$0.1	+$1.16	42% 5212-7125 (12337)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$55.76

Value

$30.11

PnL

+$19.55

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$24.96

Value

$27.97

PnL

+$3.01

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$288.29

Value

$19.77

PnL

-$268.52

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$15.33

Value

$16.87

PnL

+$1.54

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.54

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$2

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.85

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$4.12

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.33

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$2.37

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.75

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$4.96

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.53

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$49.36

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.25

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$1.16

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.