Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $777 held · ends Nov 15

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$777.12

Combined PnL

-$11.49

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 90¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$696.92

Total Shares741

Combined PnL+$96.17

Yes4 traders

Total Value$80.18

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL-$107.66

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 82.2¢	$435.6	$429.96	+$60.66	55% 1208-979 (2187)
HE hello.67	Noavg 84.7¢	$110.13	$122.23	+$12.1	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 19.2¢	$183.95	$76.56	-$107.39	62% 1127-678 (1805)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 80.1¢	$132.77	$58.14	+$15.19	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$41.7	$43.82	+$2.12	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 80¢	$48.65	$28.34	+$5.79	31% 146-327 (473)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 92¢	$14.12	$14.43	+$0.31	34% 231-458 (689)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$2.42	$2.42	+$0	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.34	$0.82	-$0.22	27% 667-1774 (2441)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.44	$0.38	-$0.05	30% 1026-2400 (3426)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$435.6

Value

$429.96

PnL

+$60.66

Record

55%

1208-979 (2187)

hello.67

Invested

$110.13

Value

$122.23

PnL

+$12.1

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$183.95

Value

$76.56

PnL

-$107.39

Record

62%

1127-678 (1805)

ghorrock

Invested

$132.77

Value

$58.14

PnL

+$15.19

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$41.7

Value

$43.82

PnL

+$2.12

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$48.65

Value

$28.34

PnL

+$5.79

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$14.12

Value

$14.43

PnL

+$0.31

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.34

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$0.22

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.