Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on November 15?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.15

Combined PnL

-$27.95

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares294

Combined PnL-$27.95

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.89	$0.07	-$13.19	35% 3858-7089 (10947)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.59	$0.04	-$6.56	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.86	$0.01	-$1.85	24% 752-2353 (3105)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.83	$0.01	-$1.82	31% 1097-2456 (3553)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.63	$0.01	-$1.62	43% 5158-6925 (12083)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.92	$0.01	-$0.92	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	30% 1151-2701 (3852)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	52% 865-790 (1655)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0	-$0.19	36% 1595-2778 (4373)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.89

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.19

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.59

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.56

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.85

Record

24%

752-2353 (3105)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.82

Record

31%

1097-2456 (3553)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.63

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.62

Record

43%

5158-6925 (12083)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.92

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

30%

1151-2701 (3852)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

PnL

-$0.19

Record

36%

1595-2778 (4373)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.