Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on November 14?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (54%) · Yes at 2.5¢ · $120 held · ended Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 54%

Total Value

$120.24

Combined PnL

-$25.72

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$118.6

Total Shares119

Combined PnL+$0.24

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.49

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$25.95

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$57.09	$57.26	+$0.17	28% 1054-2759 (3813)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$34.88	$34.84	-$0.04	36% 265-479 (744)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$10.78	$10.9	+$0.12	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.96	-$0.01	32% 281-585 (866)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$3.15	$3.15	-$0	49% 845-866 (1711)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	99% 1425-20 (1445)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.79	$0.93	-$17.86	54% 2311-1998 (4309)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.27	-$5.18	51% 867-820 (1687)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.34	$0.17	-$0.17	49% 816-837 (1653)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.41	$0.07	-$2.69	26% 730-2123 (2853)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.05	$0.02	-$0.02	58% 765-561 (1326)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.04	$0.02	-$0.02	61% 790-508 (1298)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0.01	52% 830-759 (1589)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$57.09

Value

$57.26

PnL

+$0.17

Record

28%

1054-2759 (3813)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$34.88

Value

$34.84

PnL

-$0.04

Record

36%

265-479 (744)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.78

Value

$10.9

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

845-866 (1711)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

1425-20 (1445)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.79

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$17.86

Record

54%

2311-1998 (4309)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$5.18

Record

51%

867-820 (1687)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

816-837 (1653)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.41

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.69

Record

26%

730-2123 (2853)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

765-561 (1326)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

61%

790-508 (1298)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

830-759 (1589)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2625.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

2725.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.