Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on November 14?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$1.1K
$62.93
89¢ → 84¢
-6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $496.21 | $474.03 | -$22.18 | 62% 1124-676 (1800) |
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 12.6¢ | $184.56 | $255.88 | +$71.32 | 58% 2224-1622 (3846) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 89.2¢ | $265.36 | $198.57 | -$10.41 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $51.32 | $79.68 | +$28.36 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $49.18 | $50.45 | +$1.28 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $32.05 | $29.68 | -$2.37 | 30% 187-428 (615) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $28.89 | $25.44 | -$3.45 | 30% 989-2362 (3351) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $4.24 | -$0.21 | 29% 1059-2631 (3690) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.71 | $1.77 | +$0.6 | 30% 612-1455 (2067) |
Invested
$496.21
Value
$474.03
PnL
-$22.18
Record
62%
1124-676 (1800)
Invested
$184.56
Value
$255.88
PnL
+$71.32
Record
58%
2224-1622 (3846)
HaradwaithInvested
$265.36
Value
$198.57
PnL
-$10.41
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
Invested
$51.32
Value
$79.68
PnL
+$28.36
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Invested
$49.18
Value
$50.45
PnL
+$1.28
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
Invested
$32.05
Value
$29.68
PnL
-$2.37
Record
30%
187-428 (615)
Invested
$28.89
Value
$25.44
PnL
-$3.45
Record
30%
989-2362 (3351)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$0.21
Record
29%
1059-2631 (3690)
Invested
$5.71
Value
$1.77
PnL
+$0.6
Record
30%
612-1455 (2067)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.