Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 56¢ · $699 held · ends Nov 14

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$698.67

Combined PnL

-$15.76

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 55.5¢

-13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$458.26

Total Shares860

Combined PnL-$96.11

Yes4 traders

Total Value$240.24

Total Shares572

Combined PnL+$80.35

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 63.9¢	$489.83	$405.98	-$83.85	62% 1124-676 (1800)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 40.8¢	$130.02	$133.79	+$3.77	56% 1073-841 (1914)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$24.32	$93.43	+$69.11	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 75¢	$22.5	$15.9	-$6.6	29% 1059-2631 (3690)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 59¢	$17.7	$15.9	-$1.8	41% 1570-2276 (3846)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$13.62	$12.33	-$1.29	73% 778-291 (1069)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$20.79	$8.82	+$3.03	38% 543-874 (1417)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$58.47	$8.15	-$2.58	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.3	$4.2	+$4.44	30% 612-1455 (2067)

vibing123

Invested

$489.83

Value

$405.98

PnL

-$83.85

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$130.02

Value

$133.79

PnL

+$3.77

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.32

Value

$93.43

PnL

+$69.11

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$15.9

PnL

-$6.6

Record

29%

1059-2631 (3690)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$15.9

PnL

-$1.8

Record

41%

1570-2276 (3846)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$13.62

Value

$12.33

PnL

-$1.29

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.79

Value

$8.82

PnL

+$3.03

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$58.47

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$2.58

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$4.44

Record

30%

612-1455 (2067)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.