Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on November 14?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$13.73

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 67.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,493

Combined PnL+$97.76

Yes4 traders

Total Value$439.06

Total Shares1,335

Combined PnL-$84.03

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 65.7¢	$846.21	$729.86	+$77.75	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 42.6¢	$485.52	$375.87	-$109.65	62% 1124-676 (1800)
24 241532532432	Noavg 64.3¢	$194.97	$204.78	+$9.81	38% 543-874 (1417)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 38.5¢	$142.54	$42.65	-$11.73	13% 62-416 (478)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 52.1¢	$18.25	$23.45	+$5.2	41% 1570-2276 (3846)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$28.76	$20.47	+$1.94	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 60.4¢	$18.12	$20.1	+$1.98	29% 185-443 (628)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 37.9¢	$21.18	$18.91	-$2.27	56% 1073-841 (1914)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 62¢	$10.96	$11.84	+$0.88	73% 778-291 (1069)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.35	+$0.2	30% 989-2362 (3351)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$70.89	$1.63	+$39.62	36% 3613-6424 (10037)

hello.67

Invested

$846.21

Value

$729.86

PnL

+$77.75

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$485.52

Value

$375.87

PnL

-$109.65

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

241532532432

Invested

$194.97

Value

$204.78

PnL

+$9.81

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$142.54

Value

$42.65

PnL

-$11.73

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$18.25

Value

$23.45

PnL

+$5.2

Record

41%

1570-2276 (3846)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.76

Value

$20.47

PnL

+$1.94

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$18.12

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$1.98

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.18

Value

$18.91

PnL

-$2.27

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.96

Value

$11.84

PnL

+$0.88

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.2

Record

30%

989-2362 (3351)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.89

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$39.62

Record

36%

3613-6424 (10037)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.