Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $884 held · ended Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$884.1

Combined PnL

$85.59

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 98.6¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$510.89

Total Shares2,243

Combined PnL+$166.91

No6 traders

Total Value$373.11

Total Shares495

Combined PnL-$81.32

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$342.08	$505.2	+$163.12	62% 1138-702 (1840)
24 241532532432	Noavg 91.2¢	$503.7	$333.35	-$73.17	41% 711-1031 (1742)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$25.82	$20.5	-$5.31	34% 239-461 (700)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$9.25	$7.45	-$1.8	27% 1033-2746 (3779)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$6.58	$5.64	-$0.93	71% 902-361 (1263)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.6	$4.68	+$0.08	52% 815-755 (1570)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.8	$4.62	+$2.82	14% 90-555 (645)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$1.68	$1.49	-$0.19	50% 767-764 (1531)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$88.75	$1.07	+$0.97	53% 1811-1610 (3421)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$342.08

Value

$505.2

PnL

+$163.12

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

241532532432

Invested

$503.7

Value

$333.35

PnL

-$73.17

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$25.82

Value

$20.5

PnL

-$5.31

Record

34%

239-461 (700)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

$7.45

PnL

-$1.8

Record

27%

1033-2746 (3779)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.58

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$0.93

Record

71%

902-361 (1263)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

815-755 (1570)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$2.82

Record

14%

90-555 (645)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$0.19

Record

50%

767-764 (1531)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.75

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.