Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $327 held · ended Nov 13

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$326.55

Combined PnL

-$3.59

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 99¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$313.28

Total Shares326

Combined PnL-$3.89

Yes3 traders

Total Value$13.27

Total Shares302

Combined PnL+$0.3

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.5¢	$459.92	$224.26	-$0.17	39% 579-908 (1487)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$36.66	$38.24	+$1.58	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$23.03	$25.09	+$2.06	73% 795-298 (1093)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90¢	$16.44	$17.63	+$3.36	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$4.23	$8.43	+$4.2	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$92.11	$8.06	-$10.73	99% 1095-12 (1107)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.18	$3.96	-$4.22	55% 1078-871 (1949)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.55	$0.88	+$0.32	39% 186-294 (480)

241532532432

Invested

$459.92

Value

$224.26

PnL

-$0.17

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36.66

Value

$38.24

PnL

+$1.58

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$23.03

Value

$25.09

PnL

+$2.06

Record

73%

795-298 (1093)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.44

Value

$17.63

PnL

+$3.36

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.23

Value

$8.43

PnL

+$4.2

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$92.11

Value

$8.06

PnL

-$10.73

Record

99%

1095-12 (1107)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.18

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$4.22

Record

55%

1078-871 (1949)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.32

Record

39%

186-294 (480)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.