Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on November 13?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 1.1¢ · $464 held · ended Nov 13

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$464

Combined PnL

$158.27

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 1.1¢

-99% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$438.93

Total Shares452

Combined PnL+$380.81

No5 traders

Total Value$25.06

Total Shares262

Combined PnL-$222.54

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 13.8¢	$48.75	$292.88	+$251.22	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.18	$87.48	+$79.3	56% 1073-841 (1914)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 14.9¢	$127.75	$39.14	+$33.52	38% 543-874 (1417)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$13.64	$19.79	+$6.15	73% 778-291 (1069)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$2.66	$19.43	+$16.77	37% 165-281 (446)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 86.4¢	$213.71	$2.12	-$194.4	30% 108-251 (359)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 8.5¢	$3.58	$1.43	-$2.14	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$21.09	$1.01	-$14.9	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$17.96	$0.71	-$17.24	62% 1124-676 (1800)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$48.75

Value

$292.88

PnL

+$251.22

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.18

Value

$87.48

PnL

+$79.3

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$127.75

Value

$39.14

PnL

+$33.52

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$13.64

Value

$19.79

PnL

+$6.15

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$19.43

PnL

+$16.77

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$213.71

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$194.4

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$3.58

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$2.14

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$21.09

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$14.9

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

vibing123CTR<$100

Invested

$17.96

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$17.24

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4439.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

4539.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.