Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on November 12?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $44 held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$43.84

Combined PnL

-$27.22

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$42.46

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$0.34

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.37

Total Shares456

Combined PnL-$27.56

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$29.64	$29.97	+$0.33	30% 943-2223 (3166)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$12.48	$12.49	+$0.01	99% 862-9 (871)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$19.03	$0.63	-$18.4	58% 1174-847 (2021)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.08	$0.23	+$0.15	25% 1271-3771 (5042)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$3.4	$0.18	-$3.21	60% 2190-1463 (3653)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.11	$0.11	-$1	37% 482-817 (1299)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.83	$0.09	-$2.73	46% 4905-5808 (10713)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.45	$0.08	-$2.37	18% 829-3702 (4531)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.03	$0.03	+$0	44% 139-175 (314)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.02	+$0.01	53% 1163-1023 (2186)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.64

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.33

Record

30%

943-2223 (3166)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.48

Value

$12.49

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

862-9 (871)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.03

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$18.4

Record

58%

1174-847 (2021)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$0.15

Record

25%

1271-3771 (5042)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$3.21

Record

60%

2190-1463 (3653)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$1

Record

37%

482-817 (1299)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.83

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$2.73

Record

46%

4905-5808 (10713)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.37

Record

18%

829-3702 (4531)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

139-175 (314)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.