Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 80¢ · $249 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$249.01
$72.09
78.8¢ → 80¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 78.8¢ | $273.28 | $108.74 | +$25.72 | 61% 1153-751 (1904) |
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 22.7¢ | $124.42 | $67.64 | +$48.19 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $63.93 | $61.26 | -$2.67 | 34% 370-706 (1076) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.91 | $7.24 | +$0.79 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $4.08 | $4.13 | +$0.05 | 77% 632-192 (824) |
Invested
$273.28
Value
$108.74
PnL
+$25.72
Record
61%
1153-751 (1904)
Invested
$124.42
Value
$67.64
PnL
+$48.19
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
Invested
$63.93
Value
$61.26
PnL
-$2.67
Record
34%
370-706 (1076)
Invested
$7.91
Value
$7.24
PnL
+$0.79
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$4.13
PnL
+$0.05
Record
77%
632-192 (824)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.