Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on November 12?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 60¢ · $556 held · ended Nov 12

Yes60¢No40¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 13%

Total Value

$556.07

Combined PnL

$213.76

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$512.77

Total Shares596

Combined PnL+$376.06

No7 traders

Total Value$43.3

Total Shares270

Combined PnL-$162.3

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 22.9¢	$136.71	$512.77	+$376.06	59% 1169-826 (1995)
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 82.8¢	$164.74	$20.26	-$102.75	61% 2173-1382 (3555)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$18.33	$7.15	-$2.39	54% 1036-900 (1936)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$5.41	$5.21	-$0.2	53% 6255-5540 (11795)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$20.84	$4.2	-$16.64	28% 118-304 (422)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 77.9¢	$117.96	$3.92	-$39.82	37% 461-788 (1249)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.31	$1.84	+$0.53	46% 4876-5704 (10580)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 33.9¢	$1.76	$0.73	-$1.03	65% 4205-2226 (6431)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$136.71

Value

$512.77

PnL

+$376.06

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$164.74

Value

$20.26

PnL

-$102.75

Record

61%

2173-1382 (3555)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$18.33

Value

$7.15

PnL

-$2.39

Record

54%

1036-900 (1936)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$5.41

Value

$5.21

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

6255-5540 (11795)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$20.84

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$16.64

Record

28%

118-304 (422)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$117.96

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$39.82

Record

37%

461-788 (1249)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0.53

Record

46%

4876-5704 (10580)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$1.76

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$1.03

Record

65%

4205-2226 (6431)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.