Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on November 11?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 92¢ · $60 held · ended Nov 11

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$60.39

Combined PnL

$0.32

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$39.99

Total Shares44

Combined PnL+$0.14

Yes2 traders

Total Value$20.4

Total Shares329

Combined PnL+$0.18

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$53.5	$23.49	+$0.29	55% 626-515 (1141)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$11.24	$15.44	+$4.2	34% 333-660 (993)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 91.8¢	$9.04	$9.04	+$0	78% 593-165 (758)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$5.63	$5.52	-$0.11	44% 423-534 (957)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$8.98	$4.96	-$4.02	68% 2086-974 (3060)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$1.98	$1.95	-$0.04	38% 3299-5394 (8693)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.5

Value

$23.49

PnL

+$0.29

Record

55%

626-515 (1141)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.24

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$4.2

Record

34%

333-660 (993)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$0

Record

78%

593-165 (758)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.63

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$0.11

Record

44%

423-534 (957)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.98

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$4.02

Record

68%

2086-974 (3060)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

3299-5394 (8693)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.