Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on November 11?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 58¢ · $308 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$308.03
$45.63
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67ARB<$100 | Noavg 51.8¢ | $149.53 | $176.07 | +$36.34 | 68% 2064-954 (3018) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.8¢ | $96.46 | $107.9 | +$11.44 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $47.25 | $68.17 | +$24.9 | |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $76.38 | $121.32 | +$44.94 | 32% 290-625 (915) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $3.07 | $3.04 | -$0.03 | 45% 378-468 (846) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $1.63 | $2.84 | +$1.21 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.8 | +$0 | 47% 356-402 (758) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $2.45 | $1.96 | -$0.49 | 80% 562-144 (706) |
Invested
$149.53
Value
$176.07
PnL
+$36.34
Record
68%
2064-954 (3018)
Both legs:
Invested
$76.38
Value
$121.32
PnL
+$44.94
Record
32%
290-625 (915)
Invested
$3.07
Value
$3.04
PnL
-$0.03
Record
45%
378-468 (846)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$2.84
PnL
+$1.21
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
356-402 (758)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$1.96
PnL
-$0.49
Record
80%
562-144 (706)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.