Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on November 11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $443 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$443.08
-$49.1
78.7¢ → 85.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $273.36 | $262.15 | -$11.22 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 83.9¢ | $98.28 | $100.19 | +$1.91 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $100.77 | $57 | -$43.76 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 74.4¢ | $18.06 | $20.77 | +$2.71 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $20.83 | $1.62 | +$2.33 | 66% 4092-2111 (6203) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $2.42 | $1.35 | -$1.07 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$273.36
Value
$262.15
PnL
-$11.22
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$98.28
Value
$100.19
PnL
+$1.91
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$100.77
Value
$57
PnL
-$43.76
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$18.06
Value
$20.77
PnL
+$2.71
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
Invested
$20.83
Value
$1.62
PnL
+$2.33
Record
66%
4092-2111 (6203)
Invested
$2.42
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$1.07
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.