Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on November 10?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $78 held · ended Nov 10

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$77.54

Combined PnL

$0.24

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$77.54

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$0.24

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.78	$39.72	-$0.06	52% 5344-4847 (10191)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$18.9	$19.11	+$0.2	50% 274-269 (543)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$7.35	$7.27	-$0.07	35% 2930-5331 (8261)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$6.28	$6.48	+$0.21	86% 32-5 (37)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5	$4.96	-$0.04	100% 102-0 (102)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.78

Value

$39.72

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

5344-4847 (10191)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.9

Value

$19.11

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

274-269 (543)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

35%

2930-5331 (8261)

korda77<$100

Invested

$6.28

Value

$6.48

PnL

+$0.21

Record

86%

32-5 (37)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

100%

102-0 (102)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.