Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on November 10?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $53 held · ended Nov 10

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$53

Combined PnL

-$9.13

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$43.82

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$5.91

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.15

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$15.04

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 68.3¢	$15.14	$19.94	+$4.81	86% 438-72 (510)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91¢	$18.2	$18	-$0.2	52% 5313-4817 (10130)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$21.3	$7.6	-$13.7	24% 158-513 (671)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 70¢	$4.57	$5.88	+$1.31	86% 32-5 (37)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.2¢	$2.89	$1.55	-$1.34	51% 256-247 (503)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$15.14

Value

$19.94

PnL

+$4.81

Record

86%

438-72 (510)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.3

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$13.7

Record

24%

158-513 (671)

korda77<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$1.31

Record

86%

32-5 (37)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.89

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$1.34

Record

51%

256-247 (503)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.