Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 40¢ · $197 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$196.79
-$25.98
47.2¢ → 40¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 48.5¢ | $158.15 | $132.93 | -$25.22 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 56.6¢ | $40.48 | $39.72 | -$0.76 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.5¢ | $15 | $16 | +$1 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.4¢ | $6 | $5.73 | -$0.28 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $3.13 | $2.42 | -$0.72 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
Invested
$158.15
Value
$132.93
PnL
-$25.22
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$40.48
Value
$39.72
PnL
-$0.76
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
Invested
$15
Value
$16
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$6
Value
$5.73
PnL
-$0.28
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$3.13
Value
$2.42
PnL
-$0.72
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.