Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on November 10?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 83¢ · $83 held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$83.12
-$1.78
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $56.92 | $56.57 | -$0.35 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $24.2 | $15.86 | -$0.86 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 86.2¢ | $5.63 | $5.42 | -$0.21 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $5.63 | $5.27 | -$0.36 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.