Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $108 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$108.36
-$2.55
97.3¢ → 96.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $38.62 | $38.06 | -$0.56 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $39.6 | $38 | -$1.6 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $19 | $19.07 | +$0.07 | 25% 170-523 (693) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $7.26 | $7.03 | -$0.23 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $6.43 | $6.2 | -$0.23 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
Invested
$38.62
Value
$38.06
PnL
-$0.56
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
Invested
$39.6
Value
$38
PnL
-$1.6
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$19
Value
$19.07
PnL
+$0.07
Record
25%
170-523 (693)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.26
Value
$7.03
PnL
-$0.23
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
Invested
$6.43
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0.23
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.