Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on November 1?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$72.98
$0.93
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 53.1¢ | $50.99 | $49.55 | +$0.26 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.8¢ | $24.34 | $26.52 | +$2.18 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53.1¢ | $24.98 | $23.03 | -$1.92 | |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $24.87 | $23.42 | +$0.93 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.