Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 31?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 72¢ · $359 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$359.04
$15.45
68.5¢ → 72¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 65.4¢ | $146.06 | $169.69 | +$23.63 | 55% 410-333 (743) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 24.7¢ | $109.59 | $124.62 | +$15.03 | 59% 1805-1255 (3060) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.7¢ | $83.82 | $95.2 | +$11.38 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.1¢ | $25.77 | $29.42 | +$3.65 | |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $66.59 | $48.63 | -$7.04 | 20% 312-1273 (1585) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $23.2 | $16.1 | -$1.14 | 57% 13766-10533 (24299) |
Invested
$146.06
Value
$169.69
PnL
+$23.63
Record
55%
410-333 (743)
Invested
$109.59
Value
$124.62
PnL
+$15.03
Record
59%
1805-1255 (3060)
Both legs:
Istaroth<$100Invested
$66.59
Value
$48.63
PnL
-$7.04
Record
20%
312-1273 (1585)
Invested
$23.2
Value
$16.1
PnL
-$1.14
Record
57%
13766-10533 (24299)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.