Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 30?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $253 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$253.34
-$19.57
22.2¢ → 0.5¢
-98% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $148 | $134.03 | -$13.96 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $65.26 | $47.99 | -$16.32 | 56% 372-296 (668) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $26.62 | $21.43 | -$1.98 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $5.92 | $20.93 | +$15.01 | 53% 6481-5684 (12165) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.9¢ | $14.11 | $18.96 | -$1.66 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $11.62 | $10 | -$0.66 | 21% 300-1144 (1444) |
Invested
$148
Value
$134.03
PnL
-$13.96
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
Invested
$65.26
Value
$47.99
PnL
-$16.32
Record
56%
372-296 (668)
Invested
$26.62
Value
$21.43
PnL
-$1.98
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
Invested
$5.92
Value
$20.93
PnL
+$15.01
Record
53%
6481-5684 (12165)
Invested
$14.11
Value
$18.96
PnL
-$1.66
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$11.62
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.66
Record
21%
300-1144 (1444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.