Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 70¢ · $396 held · ended Oct 29

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$396.03

Combined PnL

$58.32

Smart Money Entry

31.2¢ → 69.5¢

+123% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$348.89

Total Shares586

Combined PnL+$53.04

No2 traders

Total Value$47.15

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$5.28

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 30.2¢	$225.86	$272.23	+$46.37	47% 615-701 (1316)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 31.2¢	$59.8	$64.96	+$5.16	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 56.9¢	$36.78	$42.06	+$5.28	60% 1670-1125 (2795)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 57.4¢	$10.18	$11.7	+$1.52	57% 13342-10199 (23541)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$5.28	$5.09	-$0	23% 288-962 (1250)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$225.86

Value

$272.23

PnL

+$46.37

Record

47%

615-701 (1316)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.8

Value

$64.96

PnL

+$5.16

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$36.78

Value

$42.06

PnL

+$5.28

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.18

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$1.52

Record

57%

13342-10199 (23541)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0

Record

23%

288-962 (1250)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.