Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on October 29?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 21¢ · $273 held · ended Oct 29

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$272.71

Combined PnL

-$7.09

Smart Money Entry

20.2¢ → 20.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$180.09

Total Shares195

Combined PnL+$4.01

Yes2 traders

Total Value$92.61

Total Shares514

Combined PnL-$11.1

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 81.5¢	$117.74	$113.09	-$1.73	23% 287-958 (1245)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 20.2¢	$103.49	$92.34	-$11.15	47% 615-700 (1315)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$43.64	$48.07	+$4.43	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$17.62	$18.93	+$1.31	60% 1670-1125 (2795)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$0.22	$0.27	+$0.05	57% 13341-10198 (23539)

Istaroth

Invested

$117.74

Value

$113.09

PnL

-$1.73

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$103.49

Value

$92.34

PnL

-$11.15

Record

47%

615-700 (1315)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$43.64

Value

$48.07

PnL

+$4.43

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$17.62

Value

$18.93

PnL

+$1.31

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

13341-10198 (23539)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.