Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 28?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 16¢ · $362 held · ended Oct 28

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$361.66

Combined PnL

$7.27

Smart Money Entry

27.4¢ → 15.5¢

-43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$164.65

Total Shares541

Combined PnL+$12.5

No2 traders

Total Value$41.28

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$5.22

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$180.17	$155.73	-$6.25	26% 281-782 (1063)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.6¢	$94.37	$98.89	+$3.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.7¢	$64.99	$56.85	-$9.84
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 27.7¢	$94.88	$125.04	+$30.16	54% 267-225 (492)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$42.5	$38.1	-$4.4	61% 20691-13112 (33803)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$53.82	$33.13	-$20.68	60% 1599-1049 (2648)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$3.45	$6.48	+$3.03	57% 13139-10017 (23156)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$3.18	-$0.83	53% 6328-5544 (11872)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$180.17

Value

$155.73

PnL

-$6.25

Record

26%

281-782 (1063)

Both legs:

Invested

$94.88

Value

$125.04

PnL

+$30.16

Record

54%

267-225 (492)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$42.5

Value

$38.1

PnL

-$4.4

Record

61%

20691-13112 (33803)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.82

Value

$33.13

PnL

-$20.68

Record

60%

1599-1049 (2648)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.45

Value

$6.48

PnL

+$3.03

Record

57%

13139-10017 (23156)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$0.83

Record

53%

6328-5544 (11872)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.