Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on November 8?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Yes 100%
$0
-$99.9
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $64.95 | — | -$99.9 | 21% 931-3515 (4446) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35305-83677 (118982) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6894-8147 (15041) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3396-11845 (15241) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 9322-9369 (18691) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6636-7775 (14411) |
Invested
$64.95
Value
—
PnL
-$99.9
Record
21%
931-3515 (4446)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35305-83677 (118982)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6894-8147 (15041)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3396-11845 (15241)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
9322-9369 (18691)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6636-7775 (14411)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0
CTRYes — $0
balthazar
No — $0
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $0
luciebot
No — $0
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $0
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
CTRYes — $0