Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on November 4?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 95¢ · $408 held · ends Nov 4

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$408.25

Combined PnL

$18.14

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 94.7¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$404.61

Total Shares427

Combined PnL+$16.34

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.63

Total Shares46

Combined PnL+$1.79

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 90.6¢	$275.5	$247.17	+$10.67	58% 2455-1793 (4248)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$28.28	$28.41	+$0.13	46% 10108-11815 (21923)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$27.42	$28.41	+$0.99	41% 6764-9623 (16387)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 89¢	$26.7	$28.41	+$1.71	48% 8595-9145 (17740)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$20.75	$21.87	+$1.11	53% 9847-8570 (18417)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$41.58	$18.75	+$1.21	58% 18932-13926 (32858)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$16.61	$16.73	+$0.12	79% 12035-3234 (15269)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$11.2	$11.58	+$0.38	40% 2090-3134 (5224)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.84	$3.63	+$1.79	20% 2524-10014 (12538)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$3.26	$3.29	+$0.03	60% 11537-7729 (19266)

241532532432

Invested

$275.5

Value

$247.17

PnL

+$10.67

Record

58%

2455-1793 (4248)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$28.28

Value

$28.41

PnL

+$0.13

Record

46%

10108-11815 (21923)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$27.42

Value

$28.41

PnL

+$0.99

Record

41%

6764-9623 (16387)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$26.7

Value

$28.41

PnL

+$1.71

Record

48%

8595-9145 (17740)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.75

Value

$21.87

PnL

+$1.11

Record

53%

9847-8570 (18417)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$41.58

Value

$18.75

PnL

+$1.21

Record

58%

18932-13926 (32858)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$16.61

Value

$16.73

PnL

+$0.12

Record

79%

12035-3234 (15269)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.58

PnL

+$0.38

Record

40%

2090-3134 (5224)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.84

Value

$3.63

PnL

+$1.79

Record

20%

2524-10014 (12538)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$0.03

Record

60%

11537-7729 (19266)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.