Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on November 4?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$209.66

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$798.85

Total Shares836

Combined PnL+$194.86

Yes7 traders

Total Value$89.67

Total Shares112

Combined PnL+$14.8

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Noavg 72.1¢	$626.5	$562.68	+$161.67	44% 797-1006 (1803)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$320.3	$374.7	+$54.4	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.2¢	$195.51	$210	+$14.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.7¢	$124.79	$164.7	+$39.91
PO PoligarchCTR	Noavg 50.2¢	$121.49	$148.68	+$32.6	54% 10027-8667 (18694)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$180.53	$115.18	-$16.66	14% 461-2750 (3211)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.2¢	$93.65	$87.02	-$17.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29¢	$37.06	$28.16	+$0.99
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$66.65	$66.25	-$0.4	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 69.2¢	$17.3	$24.93	+$7.54	39% 1054-1655 (2709)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 49.9¢	$15.89	$16.4	+$0.51	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 46.5¢	$10.83	$15.37	+$4.54	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 68.4¢	$16.58	$14.12	+$4.45	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 69.9¢	$38.79	$13.6	-$0.4	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$16.96	$10.47	-$6.49	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$54.23	$7.68	+$4.45	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 16.1¢	$1.78	$5.01	+$3.24	40% 1048-1577 (2625)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 68.1¢	$2.38	$2.37	-$0	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.7	-$0.2	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.4	$0.18	-$4.23	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 22.3¢	$14.46	$0.08	+$2.38	53% 8223-7324 (15547)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$626.5

Value

$562.68

PnL

+$161.67

Record

44%

797-1006 (1803)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$320.3

Value

$374.7

PnL

+$54.4

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Both legs:

No$195.5165.2¢+$14.49

Yes$124.7922.7¢+$39.91

PoligarchCTR

Invested

$121.49

Value

$148.68

PnL

+$32.6

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$180.53

Value

$115.18

PnL

-$16.66

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Both legs:

No$93.6573.2¢-$17.66

Yes$37.0629¢+$0.99

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$66.65

Value

$66.25

PnL

-$0.4

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.3

Value

$24.93

PnL

+$7.54

Record

39%

1054-1655 (2709)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.89

Value

$16.4

PnL

+$0.51

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.83

Value

$15.37

PnL

+$4.54

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.58

Value

$14.12

PnL

+$4.45

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$38.79

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.96

Value

$10.47

PnL

-$6.49

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.23

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$4.45

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$1.78

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$3.24

Record

40%

1048-1577 (2625)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.2

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$4.23

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$14.46

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$2.38

Record

53%

8223-7324 (15547)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.