Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on November 2?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $124 held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$123.54
-$3.51
50.6¢ → 51.5¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 52.3¢ | $42.86 | $43.1 | +$0.25 | 54% 7726-6475 (14201) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $64.71 | $33.31 | -$31.4 | 50% 2042-2019 (4061) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 1.7¢ | $1.03 | $30.62 | +$29.59 | 41% 944-1372 (2316) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $8.31 | $6.08 | -$2.23 | 53% 3389-3008 (6397) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $4.9 | $5.04 | +$0.15 | 53% 7538-6672 (14210) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 57.6¢ | $8.78 | $2.69 | -$0.29 | 37% 685-1153 (1838) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.58 | +$0.43 | 31% 1943-4366 (6309) |
Invested
$42.86
Value
$43.1
PnL
+$0.25
Record
54%
7726-6475 (14201)
Invested
$64.71
Value
$33.31
PnL
-$31.4
Record
50%
2042-2019 (4061)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$30.62
PnL
+$29.59
Record
41%
944-1372 (2316)
Invested
$8.31
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$2.23
Record
53%
3389-3008 (6397)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.04
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
7538-6672 (14210)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$2.69
PnL
-$0.29
Record
37%
685-1153 (1838)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.43
Record
31%
1943-4366 (6309)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Poligarch
No — $43.1
hello.67
No — $33.31
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $30.62
Bilberry
No — $6.08
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed
No — $5.04
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $2.69
luciebot
No — $2.58