Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (90%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on November 15?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 10¢ · $180 held · ended Nov 15

Yes90¢No10¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$180.43

Combined PnL

$41.98

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 10.1¢

-87% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$81.01

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$54.51

No9 traders

Total Value$99.41

Total Shares144

Combined PnL-$12.53

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 30.5¢	$17.96	$54.69	+$36.73	42% 5221-7153 (12374)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$83.51	$47.79	+$0.84	42% 808-1111 (1919)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$32.58	$32.38	-$0.2	71% 954-392 (1346)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 19.8¢	$4.19	$19.08	+$14.89	52% 959-896 (1855)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$10.49	$4.64	+$0.57	24% 796-2588 (3384)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$4.23	$4.6	+$0.38	52% 923-846 (1769)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$3.68	$3.48	-$0.2	50% 932-930 (1862)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 31.9¢	$3.58	$2.69	-$0.89	49% 868-890 (1758)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$4.63	$2.67	-$1.96	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$0.4	$2.49	+$2.08	60% 888-604 (1492)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$3.83	$2.22	-$1.61	40% 2677-3972 (6649)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.38	$2.08	+$1.7	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 3.8¢	$0.76	$1.09	+$0.33	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$11.22	$0.54	-$10.68	58% 872-632 (1504)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.96

Value

$54.69

PnL

+$36.73

Record

42%

5221-7153 (12374)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$83.51

Value

$47.79

PnL

+$0.84

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$32.58

Value

$32.38

PnL

-$0.2

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.19

Value

$19.08

PnL

+$14.89

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$10.49

Value

$4.64

PnL

+$0.57

Record

24%

796-2588 (3384)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$4.23

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$3.68

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.58

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$0.89

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$4.63

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$1.96

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$2.49

PnL

+$2.08

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$3.83

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$1.61

Record

40%

2677-3972 (6649)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$1.7

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$0.76

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$11.22

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$10.68

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$766.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

866.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.