Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 53¢ · $223 held · ended Nov 15

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$222.58

Combined PnL

$84.17

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$186.53

Total Shares404

Combined PnL+$96.19

No4 traders

Total Value$36.04

Total Shares49

Combined PnL-$12.02

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 21.7¢	$49.48	$106.99	+$57.51	54% 1125-974 (2099)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$17.61	$37.52	+$19.91	68% 89-42 (131)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 20.9¢	$16.22	$36.4	+$20.18	42% 803-1100 (1903)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$15.72	$15.69	-$0.03	71% 950-388 (1338)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 83¢	$73.86	$8.78	-$8.96	30% 310-740 (1050)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$9.69	$6.31	-$3.39	52% 910-844 (1754)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$4.91	$5.26	+$0.36	51% 946-892 (1838)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$6.58	$3.64	-$2.94	60% 875-594 (1469)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$0.67	$1.36	+$0.69	47% 1243-1392 (2635)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.14	$0.63	+$0.85	24% 789-2561 (3350)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$49.48

Value

$106.99

PnL

+$57.51

Record

54%

1125-974 (2099)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.61

Value

$37.52

PnL

+$19.91

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.22

Value

$36.4

PnL

+$20.18

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$15.72

Value

$15.69

PnL

-$0.03

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$73.86

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$8.96

Record

30%

310-740 (1050)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$9.69

Value

$6.31

PnL

-$3.39

Record

52%

910-844 (1754)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$0.36

Record

51%

946-892 (1838)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.58

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$2.94

Record

60%

875-594 (1469)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$1.36

PnL

+$0.69

Record

47%

1243-1392 (2635)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.14

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.85

Record

24%

789-2561 (3350)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.