Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 30¢ · $152 held · ended Nov 15

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$151.91

Combined PnL

-$13.76

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$83.38

Total Shares98

Combined PnL+$14.55

Yes5 traders

Total Value$68.53

Total Shares326

Combined PnL-$28.31

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 73¢	$74.6	$68.07	+$9.75	30% 310-740 (1050)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.8¢	$30.07	$33.87	+$3.8	71% 950-388 (1338)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.6¢	$50.99	$19.15	-$31.84	54% 1125-974 (2099)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$7.24	$10.75	+$3.51	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 43¢	$3.48	$6.56	+$3.08	49% 855-885 (1740)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 72¢	$4.8	$4.55	-$0.25	50% 920-926 (1846)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.23	$4.2	+$1.97	47% 888-1008 (1896)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$2.66	$2.66	+$0	58% 865-620 (1485)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$5.88	$2.1	-$3.78	53% 2352-2120 (4472)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$74.6

Value

$68.07

PnL

+$9.75

Record

30%

310-740 (1050)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.07

Value

$33.87

PnL

+$3.8

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.99

Value

$19.15

PnL

-$31.84

Record

54%

1125-974 (2099)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.24

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$3.51

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.48

Value

$6.56

PnL

+$3.08

Record

49%

855-885 (1740)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

920-926 (1846)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.97

Record

47%

888-1008 (1896)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

865-620 (1485)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.88

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$3.78

Record

53%

2352-2120 (4472)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.