Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on November 14?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $67 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$66.95

Combined PnL

-$16.75

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$66.57

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$0.92

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.38

Total Shares191

Combined PnL-$15.83

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$31.47	$22.48	+$1.45	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$45.82	$16.97	-$2.61	26% 715-2057 (2772)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$13.01	$13.3	+$0.3	49% 798-831 (1629)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$6.06	$6.05	-$0.01	52% 810-753 (1563)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	57% 747-553 (1300)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$1.75	$1.75	+$0	50% 763-758 (1521)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$1.01	$1.02	+$0.01	61% 773-494 (1267)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$13.39	$0.3	-$13.1	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.01	$0.04	-$3.12	42% 2632-3664 (6296)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.08	$0.02	-$0.06	58% 767-547 (1314)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.06	$0.01	-$0.05	51% 847-812 (1659)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$25.33	$0.01	+$0.5	41% 711-1031 (1742)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$31.47

Value

$22.48

PnL

+$1.45

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$45.82

Value

$16.97

PnL

-$2.61

Record

26%

715-2057 (2772)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$13.01

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.06

Value

$6.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

747-553 (1300)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.39

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$13.1

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.01

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.12

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

847-812 (1659)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.33

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.5

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.