Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on November 14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 97¢ · $70 held · ended Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$70.14

Combined PnL

-$53.74

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$60.34

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$1.87

Yes3 traders

Total Value$9.8

Total Shares433

Combined PnL-$55.6

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$16.68	$19.8	+$3.12	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$45.13	$16.75	-$2.03	26% 715-2057 (2772)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$54.1	$8.7	-$45.41	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$9.77	$6.65	+$0.95	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99¢	$6.01	$6.01	+$0	61% 773-494 (1267)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.9	$4.95	+$0.05	49% 828-860 (1688)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98¢	$3.26	$3.3	+$0.03	58% 767-547 (1314)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$1.91	$1.78	-$0.13	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 83.2¢	$1.24	$1.11	-$0.13	52% 810-753 (1563)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.6¢	$7.88	$0.97	-$6.91	41% 711-1031 (1742)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$32.06	$0.13	-$3.29	42% 2632-3664 (6296)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.68

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$3.12

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$45.13

Value

$16.75

PnL

-$2.03

Record

26%

715-2057 (2772)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.1

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$45.41

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.77

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$6.01

Value

$6.01

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

828-860 (1688)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.13

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.88

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$6.91

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.06

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$3.29

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.