Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on November 14?

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 87¢ · $671 held · ended Nov 14

Yes87¢No13¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$671.46

Combined PnL

$458.01

Smart Money Entry

25¢ → 86.5¢

+246% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$636.42

Total Shares722

Combined PnL+$509.37

No10 traders

Total Value$34.96

Total Shares244

Combined PnL-$51.36

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 27.8¢	$84.45	$267.62	+$183.17	54% 1111-940 (2051)
HE hello.67	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.26	$128.31	+$115.06	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
RO rocky42019	Yesavg 29.9¢	$69.98	$103.98	+$124.76	38% 18-29 (47)
BI Bilberry<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$17.3	$60.9	+$43.6	41% 46-65 (111)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$11.52	$42.24	+$30.72	14% 90-553 (643)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 64.8¢	$100.95	$19.24	-$51.71	41% 711-1031 (1742)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$8.09	$9.49	+$1.4	61% 773-494 (1267)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$3.2	$8.48	+$6.08	71% 902-361 (1263)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$5.59	$5.45	-$0.14	52% 810-753 (1563)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.55	$5.31	+$4.76	42% 2632-3664 (6296)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$4.67	$4.65	-$0.03	49% 798-831 (1629)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 42.9¢	$16.57	$4.63	-$11.94	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$8.55	$2.54	-$6.01	58% 767-547 (1314)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$2.8	$2.4	-$0.4	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$6.42	$2.04	+$20.12	26% 715-2057 (2772)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 16.1¢	$1.94	$1.45	-$0.49	49% 828-860 (1688)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$1.75	$1.24	-$0.52	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$0.72	$0.62	-$0.1	50% 763-758 (1521)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1	$0.6	-$0.4	57% 747-553 (1300)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$0.12	$0.21	+$0.09	51% 847-812 (1659)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$84.45

Value

$267.62

PnL

+$183.17

Record

54%

1111-940 (2051)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$13.26

Value

$128.31

PnL

+$115.06

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

rocky42019

Yes

Invested

$69.98

Value

$103.98

PnL

+$124.76

Record

38%

18-29 (47)

Bilberry<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.3

Value

$60.9

PnL

+$43.6

Record

41%

46-65 (111)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.52

Value

$42.24

PnL

+$30.72

Record

14%

90-553 (643)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$100.95

Value

$19.24

PnL

-$51.71

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.09

Value

$9.49

PnL

+$1.4

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

$8.48

PnL

+$6.08

Record

71%

902-361 (1263)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.59

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$0.14

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$4.76

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.67

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$16.57

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$11.94

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$8.55

Value

$2.54

PnL

-$6.01

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$6.42

Value

$2.04

PnL

+$20.12

Record

26%

715-2057 (2772)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.49

Record

49%

828-860 (1688)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.52

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

57%

747-553 (1300)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

847-812 (1659)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.